by David North, Sustained Magazine Editor 

Sit up and pay attention. Here is Lord Oxburgh, former Chair of Shell: "Today I believe is the end of cheap energy. It’s essential that we move away from fossil fuels as fast as possible. The boat is sinking and we have to do everything we can to plug the hole."

Unfortunately, despite the oil crisis we are now experiencing, I haven’t come across much in the media that seems to really address the issue. I think I’ve heard ‘peak oil’ referred to about 3 times and then in a dismissive tone. But, as Ecologist Director Zac Goldsmith says: "Peak oil informs everything. People ought to know about it, but they don’t."

Oil has powered phenomenal economic and population growth over the last century but being a finite resource the easy-to-extract oil will eventually diminish, whilst demand continues to rise, and the cost of tapping new sources will make further production too costly. This is what ‘peak oil’ refers to, not the running out of oil, but the peak of production in relation to consumption. The first thing you will notice when the peak has been reached is the price of oil rising rapidly. Sound familiar?

Furthermore as food accounts for around 30% of all transported goods which, combined with the widespread use of oil in the actual production and processing of our food, then you can expect to see rising food prices too. Sound familiar?

Aside from that at least 500,000 products from toothbrushes, shampoo, and perfume to antihistamines, fertilizer and pesticide contain oil. Rising oil prices will mean rising everything and the likelihood of a recession. Sound familiar?

The concept of peak oil is not new and there is virtually nobody who denies its existence. The problem has been to accurately date the peak. In recent years most predictions can be averaged to between 2008 and 2012 which is reinforced by the projections of the conservative, pro-industry, International Energy Agency who suggest the peak will arrive somewhere between 2009 and 2012. So, if our current crisis isn’t a peak oil one then it probably will be very soon.

The main point of the peak oil situation is that it is not recoverable and we don’t have an equivalent alternative. What this means in brief is that any recession that comes as a result of peak oil will not stop. It will go on and on and on until it reaches its inevitable conclusion. It will be the recession to end all recessions.

The upside is that it gives us an opportunity to actually change the world and following the lines we, working in the alternative, ethical and sustainable community, have long been advocating. Buy local produce, switch to renewable energy, reduce, reuse and recycle, buy and grow organic, develop stronger community ties, support sustainable businesses and reduce your travel.

As a member of Ethical Junction you are part of a community that collectively espouses this solution. Therefore, this is not the time to say ‘Oh, there’s a credit crunch, I best baton down the hatches and hold tight.’ On the contrary, this is the time to raise a mighty cheer, gather your weapons and, together, hurl ourselves into the fray for the last big fight. Whilst the mainstream retreats and falls under the weight of its own undoing this is the time to seize their markets, turn consumers to a different way – one that isn’t dependent on oil – and so create a real chance for a truly more evolved human society.

It’s a challenge but it can be done. Ethical Junction is a community and should work as such. Support each other, join the Transition Town movement and invest to grow rather than pause to wait. At this time waiting to see what happens isn’t an option. There will be no recovery, only transition – or not. It’s up to you.

Contact:

David North

t. 01244 682563

m. 07967 448032

e. david@creative-coop.com

This entry was posted on Monday, July 21st, 2008 at 11:21 am and is filed under Miscellaneous. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.